Well its mid-March and it has been about a month since pitchers and catchers reported to spring training sites in Florida and Arizona. The upcoming season has been somewhat in the back of my mind lately and I think this is due to the fact that there is not much to look forward to, as an Astros fan, in the 2009 season. The release of Baseball Prospectus's PECOTA standings projections and Sean Smith's similar CHONE projections seems to bear me out in my lack of enthusiasm for this season.
Please do not mistake: I remain an avid baseball fan. There are few better feelings than coming home from work at the end of a long day and knowing that the odds are good that I can turn the TV on and find a game on somewhere (even if it is the Cubs, Yankees, or Red Sox). I remain a fanatic Astros devotee. I came of age in the early to mid 90s after the Astros had traded away the foundations of their 80s success. Glen Davis, Alan Ashby, Bill Doran, Nolan Ryan, Mike Scott, Jim Deshaies, Terry Puhl, Kevin Bass, Billy Hatcher, Gerald Young, the list goes on. By the atrocious 1991 season (when the Stros went 65-97 and averaged under 15,000 in attendance per game in the cavernous Astrodome) most of these players were either gone or on their way out the door. I went to games and followed the team on my Astros Buddy pocket radio every night as I fell asleep. My faithful fandom remained intact.
This upcoming season does not bode well though. The team has made no serious personnel changes aside from shedding Mark Loretta, Brad Ausmus, and Ty Wigginton and everyone else is a year older. Ausmus needed to go as he was past his prime as a defensive catcher and was an out and out liability at the plate, but Loretta and Wigginton had productive bats that will be missed.
The aging of Roy Oswalt, Lance Berkman, Carlos Lee, and Miguel Tejada along with no significant replacements for Loretta or Wigginton (Geoff Blum will likely start at 3rd in what will probably turn into a platoon situation) and the fact that the Astros have, outside of Roy Oswalt, no starting rotation to speak of compute into a PECOTA record projection for 2009 of 67-95; second to last in the NL Central. The CHONE projections are hardly better: a record of 72-90, good for last in the NL Central and tied for worst in the MLB.
2009 PECOTA projections
2009 CHONE projections
By the most respectable SABRE-metric projections, the Astros look as though they will be the worst or close to team in all of Major League Baseball for 2009. Fans, I know, are supposed to say things like "well they play the games for a reason", but PECOTA and CHONE have both proven to be accurate predictors of a team's success in a given year and so my attitude for this season is glum.
I will do a full season preview closer to Opening Day. Until then I will be conjuring up beer posts and perhaps at some point an analysis of SMU's 2009 season schedule. Oh, if you want a Rangers preview, talk to Ty.
Showing posts with label Wizard of Os. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Wizard of Os. Show all posts
Sunday, March 15, 2009
Thursday, September 18, 2008
Baseball: Hurricane Ike screws over the Astros
As most of you know by now, Hurricane Ike slammed into the Texas coastline near Houston last Friday night/Saturday morning (Houston residents Mother and Brother Fletch are ok). The night before, Roy Oswalt had continued his scoreless innings streak and the Stros smacked Pittsburgh 6-0. Then Ike hit Houston like he thought it was Tina.
The Astros cancelled Friday and Saturday night games against the Cubs and then moved up to Milwauke--where the crowd was decidedly partisan for the 'Away' team. (Milwaukee is only an hour and a half away from Chicago dontcha know: http://maps.google.com/maps?hl=en&tab=wl)--to get the series completed at a 'neutral' site. The result of this quick two game series? The Astros were no hit by internet porn addict Carlos Zambrano in the first game and nearly no-hit by Ted Lilly in the second game (both losses).
The Astros are now in Miami for a three game series with the Marlins. How have the first two games gone you ask? Losses of 5-1 and 14-2.
I think it is quite clear that the Astros--winners of 14 of their last 15 prior to Ike, 0-4 since--tightened up over the two day break. Baseball players hardly ever get two days off in the midst of the season. This unscheduled short vacation caused late season muscles to tighten up and hitters' timing to go AWOL.
Our offense has been good, if inconsistent, over the course of the season and our pitching has never been great. Even Roy Oswalt started slowly before he reeled off 33 1/3 scoreless innings just before the two day Ike instituted vacation (breaking J.R. Richard's record from 1980). So the very last thing the Astros needed was a couple of days to realize that they were playing above their abilities, that they were overachieving.
In short I blame you Ike! Je accuse!
The Astros cancelled Friday and Saturday night games against the Cubs and then moved up to Milwauke--where the crowd was decidedly partisan for the 'Away' team. (Milwaukee is only an hour and a half away from Chicago dontcha know: http://maps.google.com/maps?hl=en&tab=wl)--to get the series completed at a 'neutral' site. The result of this quick two game series? The Astros were no hit by internet porn addict Carlos Zambrano in the first game and nearly no-hit by Ted Lilly in the second game (both losses).
The Astros are now in Miami for a three game series with the Marlins. How have the first two games gone you ask? Losses of 5-1 and 14-2.
I think it is quite clear that the Astros--winners of 14 of their last 15 prior to Ike, 0-4 since--tightened up over the two day break. Baseball players hardly ever get two days off in the midst of the season. This unscheduled short vacation caused late season muscles to tighten up and hitters' timing to go AWOL.
Our offense has been good, if inconsistent, over the course of the season and our pitching has never been great. Even Roy Oswalt started slowly before he reeled off 33 1/3 scoreless innings just before the two day Ike instituted vacation (breaking J.R. Richard's record from 1980). So the very last thing the Astros needed was a couple of days to realize that they were playing above their abilities, that they were overachieving.
In short I blame you Ike! Je accuse!
Monday, September 8, 2008
Texas State Recap and Other Notes
See? All we had to do is be patient and June Jones would reward us with a win. Granted the win was over FCS team Texas State and the Mustang defense still allowed 36 points and 465 yards of offense, but a win is a win and I'll take it.
Bo Levi Mitchell passed for 370 yards, had no interceptions and 5 (yes five) TD passes. Emanuel Sanders and Aldrick Robinson both had over 100 yards receiving and 3 and 2 TD catches respectively. As Sanders said after the game "It's going to be scary when we get better". So as in sync as the offense looked on Saturday, there is still room for improvement. Bo is still overthrowing a little and his timing with some receivers (like Wilkerson) is a bit off, but that will come with time. Sanders and Robinson also made him look good on some catches that were thrown down by the hip or short, but I also noticed that Bo Levi was throwing it away from the defenders: either a Mustang was going to catch it or no one was for the most part. This is markedly different from the second half against Rice when Bo floated too many passes and allowed himself to get careless in his decision making. Let's hope he shows further improvement next week becuase Texas Tech's backs are on a different level than those of Texas State.
Another interesting development, was the use of Justin Willis as an option-running QB on a couple short yardage situations in the first half. Are the Mustangs going to do the vogue thing and start instituting a direct snap formation too? Time will tell. I certainly support the idea as Justin was always a better runner than passer.
All in all, a good performance by the Mustangs. The defense still has a long way to go, but we in Pony Nation should keep in mind that this defense was never meant to shut down the other team's offense. Tom Mason's defense is designed to make aggressive plays and either force turnovers or allow big plays. While turnovers are of course preferred, the general concept is that any play that gets the offense back on the field that much faster is acceptable. This is a different style of defense than what we as fans were used to under Phil Bennett, where the idea was to stop the other team in its tracks (with varying degrees of success as Bennett's 18-52 record demonstrates). This type of defense takes an adjustment of expectations by us the fans. Big plays will happen, but we have to have faith in our offense, and so by extension June Jones, to keep us in the game.
In other news, the Astros took 2 of 3 from the Rockies over the weekend and are only 6 back in the Wild Card race. Hunter Pence continued his torrid pace, hitting his 21st home run on Saturday and Roy Oswalt threw a one hitter the same night. The bad news: Brandon Backe and Wandy Rodriguez both injured themselves. Better to have this happen after September callups when the roster is at 40 players I suppose, but it is still a rough break.
I also tried with Ty a beer I'd never had before call Steam Engine Amber. It proudly boasts on the can that it is the best American Style Amber Lager in the world. It had notes of fruit and an excellent nose to it. Very solid beer, but more research is necessary.
We'll have more entries this week as we face the spectre that is Texas Tech this weekend. Until then, go Mustangs and go Astros (and the Rangers too I guess).
Bo Levi Mitchell passed for 370 yards, had no interceptions and 5 (yes five) TD passes. Emanuel Sanders and Aldrick Robinson both had over 100 yards receiving and 3 and 2 TD catches respectively. As Sanders said after the game "It's going to be scary when we get better". So as in sync as the offense looked on Saturday, there is still room for improvement. Bo is still overthrowing a little and his timing with some receivers (like Wilkerson) is a bit off, but that will come with time. Sanders and Robinson also made him look good on some catches that were thrown down by the hip or short, but I also noticed that Bo Levi was throwing it away from the defenders: either a Mustang was going to catch it or no one was for the most part. This is markedly different from the second half against Rice when Bo floated too many passes and allowed himself to get careless in his decision making. Let's hope he shows further improvement next week becuase Texas Tech's backs are on a different level than those of Texas State.
Another interesting development, was the use of Justin Willis as an option-running QB on a couple short yardage situations in the first half. Are the Mustangs going to do the vogue thing and start instituting a direct snap formation too? Time will tell. I certainly support the idea as Justin was always a better runner than passer.
All in all, a good performance by the Mustangs. The defense still has a long way to go, but we in Pony Nation should keep in mind that this defense was never meant to shut down the other team's offense. Tom Mason's defense is designed to make aggressive plays and either force turnovers or allow big plays. While turnovers are of course preferred, the general concept is that any play that gets the offense back on the field that much faster is acceptable. This is a different style of defense than what we as fans were used to under Phil Bennett, where the idea was to stop the other team in its tracks (with varying degrees of success as Bennett's 18-52 record demonstrates). This type of defense takes an adjustment of expectations by us the fans. Big plays will happen, but we have to have faith in our offense, and so by extension June Jones, to keep us in the game.
In other news, the Astros took 2 of 3 from the Rockies over the weekend and are only 6 back in the Wild Card race. Hunter Pence continued his torrid pace, hitting his 21st home run on Saturday and Roy Oswalt threw a one hitter the same night. The bad news: Brandon Backe and Wandy Rodriguez both injured themselves. Better to have this happen after September callups when the roster is at 40 players I suppose, but it is still a rough break.
I also tried with Ty a beer I'd never had before call Steam Engine Amber. It proudly boasts on the can that it is the best American Style Amber Lager in the world. It had notes of fruit and an excellent nose to it. Very solid beer, but more research is necessary.
We'll have more entries this week as we face the spectre that is Texas Tech this weekend. Until then, go Mustangs and go Astros (and the Rangers too I guess).
Friday, September 5, 2008
Home Kickoff Tomorrow and Baseball notes
The Mustangs kick off their home opener Saturday night at Ford Stadium at 7 pm against Texas State (no Ty, not the Armadillos ). This game, against a Division 1-AA--or FCS or whatever it's called--opponent should help Bo Levi and company get on the same page with the offense while the defense will hopefully get it's footing against the Bobcats. The Tech game, afterall, is looming next weekend and so a confidence/experience boosting game against a lesser team this weekend takes on added importance. As previously mentioned, Ty and I will be on the Boulevard experimenting with powering a TV using a deep cycle marine battery (should be interesting...).
In the meantime, the Astros wrapped up a three game sweep of the Cubs at Wrigley on Wednesday. In three games the Stros outscored the Cubs 16-7 (all seven of those runs game in the second game of the series) and the first and third games were punctuated with great pitching performances from Roy 'Where has this been all season' Oswalt and Randy 'So that's why we traded for him' Wolf. The Astros now have an 8 game winning streak and, dare I say it, are starting to move into the NL Wild Card picture. The odds of winding up in the playoffs are of course pretty low, but considering that with 74 wins, the Stros have already topped their win total from last year, this must be considered a successful season for Cecil Cooper and company. What does this mean for next season when everyone on an already not young team will be a year older? Eh, we'll see...
I'll be recapping the Texas State game on Sunday or Monday again. Until then, see you on the Boulevard.
In the meantime, the Astros wrapped up a three game sweep of the Cubs at Wrigley on Wednesday. In three games the Stros outscored the Cubs 16-7 (all seven of those runs game in the second game of the series) and the first and third games were punctuated with great pitching performances from Roy 'Where has this been all season' Oswalt and Randy 'So that's why we traded for him' Wolf. The Astros now have an 8 game winning streak and, dare I say it, are starting to move into the NL Wild Card picture. The odds of winding up in the playoffs are of course pretty low, but considering that with 74 wins, the Stros have already topped their win total from last year, this must be considered a successful season for Cecil Cooper and company. What does this mean for next season when everyone on an already not young team will be a year older? Eh, we'll see...
I'll be recapping the Texas State game on Sunday or Monday again. Until then, see you on the Boulevard.
Thursday, August 28, 2008
Only hours away...
Genuine giddiness and excitement have taken over. I'll barely be paying attention at work tomorrow. I'll likely be on ponyfans most of the day. The June Jones era begins Friday night on ESPN at 7pm.
I'll be watching with some friends on a big screen. Ty--because he's married to an Aggie--will be heading to College Station and will likely miss most of the first half. The poor bastard.
Anyway, we'll both have a recap of the game on either Sunday or Monday.
In unrelated news, the Astros beat the Reds Thursday and Roy Oswalt got the win. Now wins for pitchers is one of the most absurdly overrated stats in baseball (WHIP and K/9 innings are much better indicators of a pitcher's worth to his team), but Oswalt is 22-1 against the Reds in his career. Try and digest that for a moment: his record is not filled with no decisions...he's 22-1! That's utter domination.
Food for thought as we try not to watch the clock and count the minutes until kickoff.
I'll be watching with some friends on a big screen. Ty--because he's married to an Aggie--will be heading to College Station and will likely miss most of the first half. The poor bastard.
Anyway, we'll both have a recap of the game on either Sunday or Monday.
In unrelated news, the Astros beat the Reds Thursday and Roy Oswalt got the win. Now wins for pitchers is one of the most absurdly overrated stats in baseball (WHIP and K/9 innings are much better indicators of a pitcher's worth to his team), but Oswalt is 22-1 against the Reds in his career. Try and digest that for a moment: his record is not filled with no decisions...he's 22-1! That's utter domination.
Food for thought as we try not to watch the clock and count the minutes until kickoff.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
