2009 Baseball Season Outlook

Well its mid-March and it has been about a month since pitchers and catchers reported to spring training sites in Florida and Arizona. The upcoming season has been somewhat in the back of my mind lately and I think this is due to the fact that there is not much to look forward to, as an Astros fan, in the 2009 season. The release of Baseball Prospectus's PECOTA standings projections and Sean Smith's similar CHONE projections seems to bear me out in my lack of enthusiasm for this season.

Please do not mistake: I remain an avid baseball fan. There are few better feelings than coming home from work at the end of a long day and knowing that the odds are good that I can turn the TV on and find a game on somewhere (even if it is the Cubs, Yankees, or Red Sox). I remain a fanatic Astros devotee. I came of age in the early to mid 90s after the Astros had traded away the foundations of their 80s success. Glen Davis, Alan Ashby, Bill Doran, Nolan Ryan, Mike Scott, Jim Deshaies, Terry Puhl, Kevin Bass, Billy Hatcher, Gerald Young, the list goes on. By the atrocious 1991 season (when the Stros went 65-97 and averaged under 15,000 in attendance per game in the cavernous Astrodome) most of these players were either gone or on their way out the door. I went to games and followed the team on my Astros Buddy pocket radio every night as I fell asleep. My faithful fandom remained intact.

This upcoming season does not bode well though. The team has made no serious personnel changes aside from shedding Mark Loretta, Brad Ausmus, and Ty Wigginton and everyone else is a year older. Ausmus needed to go as he was past his prime as a defensive catcher and was an out and out liability at the plate, but Loretta and Wigginton had productive bats that will be missed.

The aging of Roy Oswalt, Lance Berkman, Carlos Lee, and Miguel Tejada along with no significant replacements for Loretta or Wigginton (Geoff Blum will likely start at 3rd in what will probably turn into a platoon situation) and the fact that the Astros have, outside of Roy Oswalt, no starting rotation to speak of compute into a PECOTA record projection for 2009 of 67-95; second to last in the NL Central. The CHONE projections are hardly better: a record of 72-90, good for last in the NL Central and tied for worst in the MLB.

2009 PECOTA projections

2009 CHONE projections

By the most respectable SABRE-metric projections, the Astros look as though they will be the worst or close to team in all of Major League Baseball for 2009. Fans, I know, are supposed to say things like "well they play the games for a reason", but PECOTA and CHONE have both proven to be accurate predictors of a team's success in a given year and so my attitude for this season is glum.

I will do a full season preview closer to Opening Day. Until then I will be conjuring up beer posts and perhaps at some point an analysis of SMU's 2009 season schedule. Oh, if you want a Rangers preview, talk to Ty.

Baseball: Hurricane Ike screws over the Astros

As most of you know by now, Hurricane Ike slammed into the Texas coastline near Houston last Friday night/Saturday morning (Houston residents Mother and Brother Fletch are ok). The night before, Roy Oswalt had continued his scoreless innings streak and the Stros smacked Pittsburgh 6-0. Then Ike hit Houston like he thought it was Tina.

The Astros cancelled Friday and Saturday night games against the Cubs and then moved up to Milwauke--where the crowd was decidedly partisan for the 'Away' team. (Milwaukee is only an hour and a half away from Chicago dontcha know: http://maps.google.com/maps?hl=en&tab=wl)--to get the series completed at a 'neutral' site. The result of this quick two game series? The Astros were no hit by internet porn addict Carlos Zambrano in the first game and nearly no-hit by Ted Lilly in the second game (both losses).

The Astros are now in Miami for a three game series with the Marlins. How have the first two games gone you ask? Losses of 5-1 and 14-2.

I think it is quite clear that the Astros--winners of 14 of their last 15 prior to Ike, 0-4 since--tightened up over the two day break. Baseball players hardly ever get two days off in the midst of the season. This unscheduled short vacation caused late season muscles to tighten up and hitters' timing to go AWOL.

Our offense has been good, if inconsistent, over the course of the season and our pitching has never been great. Even Roy Oswalt started slowly before he reeled off 33 1/3 scoreless innings just before the two day Ike instituted vacation (breaking J.R. Richard's record from 1980). So the very last thing the Astros needed was a couple of days to realize that they were playing above their abilities, that they were overachieving.

In short I blame you Ike! Je accuse!

Tech Recap: It could have been much worse

For those of you who do not think that that game could have easily been a much bigger blowout, I submit to you the fact that despite handing Tech the ball twice in a row in the first quarter, Harrell and company were only able to muster a field goal. The Ponies' defense held back the tide as long as they could, but in the end Mike Leach's offense and the Mustangs' continued inability to complete tackles led to the game becoming a rout.

Some positives to ponder over this week as the Mustangs prepare to play TCU: Derrius Bell looked good covering the Raiders uber receiver Michael Crabtree for awhile. Bell is not on the same talent level as McCann, but he has learned to reduce the cushion he gives receivers and has improved his timing on hits. The other item of note on defense was how often the lineman--led as usual by Youri Yenga--got to Graham Harrell. Even Patrick Fleming, who doesn't play often, managed to slip past one of Tech's ginormous (and slow) O linemen...that is before he inadvertantly but brutally facemasked Harrell. That bodes well for the TCU game.

On offense there were actually positive aspects too. Yes, there were. You just have to look real hard. As far as Bo Levi goes, it bears repeating that he is a true freshman who was only playing his 3rd collegiate game. He will grow and he will learn. I like to think that, in two years when Bo Levi is featured in some nationally televised game where SMU is winning by 5 touchdowns, that the camera will pan in on him and the announcer will talk about how far Bo Levi has come since he threw 5 interceptions in one game two years prior. One can hope.

The Offense line has continued to excel. It's time to heap praise on Dennis McKnight. He has done an outstanding job of molding a young, inexperienced unit into a cohesive, effective protection front. In case you had not noticed, true freshman Blake McJunkin started in place of junior Mitch Enright (for reasons I still have not heard) and performed admirably, with the exception of two poor snaps that caused Bo Levi to fumble with the ball rather than look downfield for his receivers. Tennyson and Beachum have continued to improve and Vincent Chase has transitioned well from tight end to right tackle. The quarterbacks and receivers will eventually get on the same page, but it will help them get there much faster with a solid line protecting Bo Levi and giving him time to make reads. The future is bright for the Ponies' front 5.

The Mustangs face TCU this Saturday at Ford Stadium. Ty and I will be out on the Boulevard in our usual spot in front of Cockrell-McIntosh (or Cocomo to those in the know) tailgating and drinking the Champagne of Beers. If anyone outside our immediate circle of friends reads this blog, feel free to stop by our tent. It's the huge white one that looks like it could double as a carport.

And no, I do not want to talk about the Astros being forced to postpone Friday and Saturday's games against the Cubs only to go to Milwaukee (a neutral site? fuck that, it might as well have been played in Wrigley. A truly neutral site would've been Seattle) and be no-hit by Carlos "I swear I got tendinitis in my elbow from emailing my brother and not looking at internet porn" Zambrano.

Until Saturday, Go Mustangs, Go Astros, and fuck the Cubs (and Horned Frogs).